By Jenel Hunt
Experimental forecasts for the weather might sound a bit like crystal ball gazing, but on the Granite Belt these forecasts have been part of farming life for the past five years for some interested growers.
On the Granite Belt last week (11 May), farmers attended a meeting where the Granite Belt forecast for May, June and July was presented during a bi-annual in-person meeting at the Queensland College of Wine Tourism.
The meeting was attended by mainly vegetable growers, strawberry and raspberry growers and agronomists. Also presented was the accuray of all 46 monthly forecasts to date.
Presenters were project leader David Carey, who is a senior horticulturist with Agri-Science Qld in the Department of Agriculture and Fisheries and Peter Deuter, (PLD Horticulture). Between them, they have more than 80 years of horticulture industry experience
David said the forecasts were provided through the Queensland Government’s Drought and Climate Adaptation Program.
The system is based on the viewpoint that ‘better information drives better management decisions’.
One, two and three month forecasts are provided for maximum, minimum and rainfall, with the forecast indicating if the expectation is for above, below or near the monthly mean. The forecasts are emailed to interested growers every two months, for the next three months.
“We pay to use the Bureau of Meteorology’s multi-week and seasonal forecasts, and our long lead time forecasts are considered valuable and accurate,” David said.
“We have documented the real-world examples, including the dollar impact, of the positive impact on crop yield and farm incomes that have been achieved since our DCAP project team has been communicating this information.
“Every DCAP long lead time experimental forecast is checked against what actually occurs and this information about accuracy is also presented and explained.”
He said the project had led to increased insight into the application of the forecasts by the horticulture sector.
“In particular, it has become clear that vegetable growers, business managers and supply chain managers collaborating in this project are making a considerable number of weather-related management decisions,” said David.
Those decisions might be altering the starting dates for the planting season, choosing a different variety to plant or making changes to irrigation management.
Last year two new online tools were developed for farmers – the Climate Monitor and HortCarbon Info. The Climate Monitor is available on the Queensland Government’s Long Paddock site. The HortCarbon Info tool easily calculates individual horticultural farm emissions (greenhouse gas footprint). The calculation is based on the use of power, fuel and fertiliser.
One Granite Belt business manager described the value of the forecasting project to his operation.
“This is perhaps one of the most worthwhile projects undertaken by a government department in a long time. Having a better understanding of our ever-changing climate has to be the greatest management tool that a grower can use.”
A similar project is running in the Lockyer Valley.
